Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses something to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
